ABSTRACT
Owing to the continuous variant of the COVID-19 virus, the present epidemic may persist for a long time, and each breakout displays strongly region/time-dependent characteristics. Predicting each specific burst is the basic task for the corresponding strategies. However, the refinement of prevention and control measures usually means the limitation of the existing records of the evolution of the spread, which leads to a special difficulty in making predictions. Taking into account the interdependence of people' s travel behaviors and the epidemic spreading, we propose a modified logistic model to mimic the COVID-19 epidemic spreading, in order to predict the evolutionary behaviors for a specific bursting in a megacity with limited epidemic related records. It continuously reproduced the COVID-19 infected records in Shanghai, China in the period from March 1 to June 28, 2022. From December 7, 2022 when Mainland China adopted new detailed prevention and control measures, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out nationwide, and the infected people themselves took "ibuprofen” widely to relieve the symptoms of fever. A reasonable assumption is that the total number of searches for the word "ibuprofen” is a good representation of the number of infected people. By using the number of searching for the word "ibuprofen” provided on Baidu, a famous searching platform in Mainland China, we estimate the parameters in the modified logistic model and predict subsequently the epidemic spreading behavior in Shanghai, China starting from December 1, 2022. This situation lasted for 72 days. The number of the infected people increased exponentially in the period from the beginning to the 24th day, reached a summit on the 31st day, and decreased exponentially in the period from the 38th day to the end. Within the two weeks centered at the summit, the increasing and decreasing speeds are both significantly small, but the increased number of infected people each day was significantly large. The characteristic for this prediction matches very well with that for the number of metro passengers in Shanghai. It is suggested that the relevant departments should establish a monitoring system composed of some communities, hospitals, etc. according to the sampling principle in statistics to provide reliable prediction records for researchers. © 2023 Chinese Physical Society.
ABSTRACT
The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected the urban mobility of nations around the world. The pandemic may even have a potentially lasting impact on travel behaviors during the post-pandemic stage. China has basically stopped the spread of COVID-19 and reopened the economy, providing an unprecedented environment for investigating post-pandemic travel behaviors. This study conducts multiple investigations to show the changes in travel behaviors in the post-pandemic stage, on the basis of empirical travel data in a variety of cities in China. Specifically, this study demonstrates the changes in road network travel speed in 57 case cities and the changes in subway ridership in 26 case cities. Comprehensive comparisons can indicate the potential modal share in the post-pandemic stage. Further, this study conducts a case analysis of Beijing, where the city has experienced two waves of COVID-19. The variations in travel speed in the road network of Beijing at different stages of the pandemic help reveal the public's responses towards the varying severity of the pandemic. Finally, a case study of the Yuhang district in Hangzhou is conducted to demonstrate the changes in traffic volume and vehicle travel distance amid the post-pandemic stage based on license plate recognition data. Results indicate a decline in subway trips in the post-pandemic stage among case cities. The vehicular traffic in cities with subways has recovered in peak hours on weekdays and has been even more congested than the pre-pandemic levels;whereas the vehicular traffic in cities without subways has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. This situation implies a potential modal shift from public transportation to private vehicular travel modes. Results also indicate that commuting traffic is sensitive to the severity of the pandemic. This may be because countermeasures, e.g., work-from-home and suspension of non-essential businesses, will be implemented if the pandemic restarts. The travel speed in non-peak hours and on non-workdays is higher than pre-pandemic levels, indicating that non-essential travel demand may be reduced and the public's vigilance towards the pandemic may continue to the post-pandemic stage. These findings can help improve policymaking strategies in the post-pandemic new normal. © 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 continues to threaten the world. Relaxing local travel behaviours on preventing the spread of COVID-19, may increase the infection risk in subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, we analysed changes in the travel behaviour of different population groups (adult, child, student, elderly) during four pandemic waves in Hong Kong before January 2021, by 4-billion second-by-second smartcard records of subway. A significant continuous relaxation in human travel behaviour was observed during the four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Residents sharply reduced their local travel by 51.9%, 50.1%, 27.6%, and 20.5% from the first to fourth pandemic waves, respectively. The population flow in residential areas, workplaces, schools, shopping areas, amusement areas and border areas, decreased on average by 30.3%, 33.5%, 41.9%, 58.1%, 85.4% and 99.6%, respectively, during the pandemic weeks. We also found that many other cities around the world experienced a similar relaxation trend in local travel behaviour, by comparing traffic congestion data during the pandemic with data from the same period in 2019. The quantitative pandemic fatigue in local travel behaviour could help governments partially predicting personal protective behaviours, and thus to suggest more accurate interventions during subsequent waves, especially for highly infectious virus variants such as Omicron.
ABSTRACT
At the end of December 2019, a new virus outbreak baptized by scientists as COVID-19 (SARS-CoV2) paralyzed global commerce generating millionaire losses in the world. The virus was rapidly disseminated to the western cities through international travel and the tourism industry, a problem which led governments to cancel international flights while closing the airspace. The WHO (World Health Organization) recommended energetically the imposition of strict lockdowns and keeping social distancing as two valid forms to mitigate the pandemic. In the question of months, the virus wreaked havoc in the main economies of the world grinding the tourism and hospitality industries to an unparalleled halt. To put things straight, to date, more than 37 million people have been infected and one million have perished. Afrgentina, a southern Latin American country, which adopted a stricter and longer lockdown in the beginning, was gradually escalating to seventh place in the number of infected people (894.206) seconded by Peru and France. The socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry are not only manifold and complex but also denote a multifaceted dynamic. While some voices have alerted on the urgency to develop more resilient and eco-friendly forms of consumption, others have emphasized the need of changing the current research towards multidisciplinary methods. In the pre-pandemic days, tourists were valorized as an ambassador of "civilization," real global knights widely admired and objects of curiosity while nowadays tourists are negatively seen as potential enemies or carriers of a mortal disease, so to speak widely feared and demonized as never before. In this context, the present chapter discusses conceptually the effects and changes of the tourism industry in Argentina, particularly but with some broad strokes that illustrate the ways the industry is changing in the world. © 2023 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Purpose: This study attempts to answer how values and holiday preferences were shaped by the pandemic, how travellers view the future of tourism and how they are willing to contribute to potential changes. Furthermore, it examines the impact of socio-structural background factors, basic values and holiday preferences, and pandemic-related factors on the views of post-pandemic tourism. Design/methodology/approach: A longitudinal online survey was conducted in which 155 frequent travellers were interviewed both before and during the pandemic about their values and holiday preferences, attitudes towards travelling during the pandemic, and their prospective views regarding tourism. Findings: The findings revealed that values remained rather stable, but nature experiences, heritage tourism and beach offers gained more relevance when it came to holiday preferences. Concerning travellers' expectations of future tourism, environmental concern was ranked higher than economic profit. However, those striving for self-direction, stimulation and city tourism offers stated to be less willing to restrict their travel behaviour in the future. Research limitations/implications: Although our study is just based on a convenience sample, the authors were still able to address notable research gaps. First, because a longitudinal design was selected, it was possible to investigate any potential transitions in basic values and travel style and trace these changes back to the pandemic. Second, thanks to a sophisticated online survey, all concepts could be measured with well-developed scales, which increased the quality of the measurements and led to stable results. Third, young travellers can be considered proponents of future travel styles. Their way of acting and thinking about future tourism could significantly impact the prospective direction of tourism. Practical implications: This study makes a valuable contribution to changing holiday preferences and provides useful insights for the tourism industry about travellers' willingness to change their travel behaviour. Social implications: Since this study primarily considers human values and socio-structural factors, the findings are of particular interest from a sociological perspective and are also interpreted from this viewpoint. Originality/value: This study is one of only a few longitudinal studies focusing on holiday preferences and shifting values during COVID-19 and attempting to detect crucial drivers of potential tourism transformations in terms of perceptions from the demand side. © 2023, Wolfgang Aschauer and Roman Egger.
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This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the urban motorcycle taxi (MCT) sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). MCToperators in SSA provide essential transport services and have shown ingenuity and an ability to adapt and innovate when responding to different challenges, including health challenges. However, policymakers and regulators often remain somewhat hostile toward the sector. The article discusses the measures and restrictions put in place to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and key stakeholders' perspectives on these and on the sector's level of compliance. Primary data were collected in six SSA countries during the last quarter of 2020. Between 10 and 15 qualitative interviews with key stakeholders relevant to the urban MCT sector were conducted in each country. These interviews were conducted with stakeholders based in the capital city and a secondary city, to ensure a geographically broader understanding of the measures, restrictions, and perspectives. The impact of COVID-19 measures on the MCT and motor-tricycle taxi sector was significant and overwhelmingly negative. Lockdowns, restrictions on the maximum number of passengers allowed to be carried at once, and more generally, a COVID-19-induced reduction in demand, resulted in a drop in income for operators, according to the key stakeholders. However, some key stakeholders indicated an increase in MCT activity and income because of the motorcycles' ability to bypass police and army controls. In most study countries measures were formulated in a non-consultative manner. This, we argue, is symptomatic of governments' unwillingness to seriously engage with the sector. © National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2021.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted typical travel behavior worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), government entities took action to limit its spread through public health messaging to encourage reduced mobility and thus reduce the spread of the virus. Within statewide responses to COVID-19, however, there were different responses locally. Likely some of these variations were a result of individual attitudes toward the government and health messaging, but there is also likely a portion of the effects that were because of the character of the communities. In this research, we summarize county-level characteristics that are known to affect travel behavior for 404 counties in the U.S., and we investigate correlates of mobility between April and September (2020). We do this through application of three metrics that are derived via changepoint analysis—initial post-disruption mobility index, changepoint on restoration of a ‘‘new normal,'' and recovered mobility index. We find that variables for employment sectors are significantly correlated and had large effects on mobility during the pandemic. The state dummy variables are significant, suggesting that counties within the same state behaved more similarly to one another than to counties in different states. Our findings indicate that few travel characteristics that typically correlate with travel behavior are related to pandemic mobility, and that the number of COVID-19 cases may not be correlated with mobility outcomes. © National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board 2021.
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Considering the coronavirus risk, the purpose of the study is to reveal the group differences in travel risk perception, travel behaviour and behavioural intention in terms of the tourists' sociodemographic characteristics-gender, age and past travel experience. A convenience sampling was used and members of the eligible travel groups on social media platforms were invited to respond to an online survey. A total of 160 responses were obtained from Turkey in January 2021. Exploratory factor analysis, independent samples t-tests and cross-tabulation analysis were performed to analyse the data. This study determined the differences in the risk perception of coronavirus, travel behaviour and travel intention of tourists in terms of gender and age of tourists. Although it is known that the higher the experience, the lower the risk perception, the study showed no differences associated with the past travel experience. This supposes that all tourists, regardless of their past experience, perceived the coronavirus risk in the same way as its influence has been tremendous globally. Consequently, tourism professionals should attract target markets at the appropriate time with compatible strategies regarding the sociodemographic factors.
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Introduction: Contrary to the past when we used to pick among destinations based on our personal preferences, we have had to ignore our preferences due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tourists' buying behaviour and patterns may differ in the pandemic conditions. Purpose: During the early pandemic period, filled with panic and fear, consumers shopped for pasta and toilet paper so much so that stores ran out of these consumables, and people started a fight for survival. It was extremely difficult to answer the question of when these consumers, who were shopping as if they would never get out of their homes ever again, would go on vacation as tourists again. In this chapter, it is aimed to reveal how much tourists' choices of destination affect the number of cases and deaths caused by the pandemic. Methodology: To understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourist destination choices, correlations between the numbers of cases and deaths in 2020 and the changes in tourist arrival numbers for the previous year were analysed. Findings: Based on the results of the analyses, consumers generally want to participate in tourism even in pandemic conditions. Therefore, at the end of the chapter, precautions and recommendations are put forward to adapt to the pandemic process and enable the dynamism in the tourism sector to be maintained.
ABSTRACT
A travel behaviour change approach complements hard transport measures to develop more sustainable transport systems. Travel behaviour change is a growing field of research, with a range of theories, behaviours and tools being studied. Consequently, a wide-angled review is critical for synthesising knowledge in this field. This study conducted a scientometric review of travel behaviour change literature, identifying the main characteristics, key journals, research categories, keywords, authors, institutions, countries and cited references. In addition, a content analysis was conducted to identify current research trends and gaps in the field and develop a future research agenda. The scientometric component of the review analysed the bibliographic data of 323 academic records. The review identified that the field has a long history and has grown significantly since 2011. The content analysis of recent research (n = 17 articles) supported previous findings that travel behaviour change interventions can result in changing behaviour. The main target behaviours are private motor vehicle use, bicycling and public transport. Notably absent is trip avoidance research. Information dissemination strategies are the main tools trialled, including personalised travel plans, websites and apps. Finally, we propose six research directions for the travel behaviour change field: multiple research methods;identify effective intervention components;locally contextualised research;further segmentation research;longer-term studies;and trip avoidance research. Trip avoidance research is most urgent, as experiences due to COVID-19 have shown, working from home could have a significant positive impact on the sustainability of our transport systems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus first appeared in January 2020 and has spread dramatically in most parts of the world. In addition to exerting enormous impacts on public health and well-being, it has also affected a broad spectrum of industries and sectors, including transportation. Countries around the world have imposed restrictions on travel and participation in activities due to the outbreak of the virus. Many countries have adopted social distancing rules requiring people to maintain a safe distance. Therefore, the pandemic has accelerated the transition into a world in which online education, online shopping, and remote working are becoming increasingly prevalent. Every aspect of our life has witnessed a series of new rules, habits, and behaviours during this period, and our travel choices or behaviours are no exception. Some of these changes can be permanent or have long-lasting effects. To control this situation, these changes must first be recognised in various aspects of transportation in order to provide policies for similar situations in the future. In this regard, this study seeks to examine how transportation sectors have changed in the first waves of the pandemic. Iran has been selected as the case study in this paper. This research is divided into two parts. The first part focuses on the effects of the Coronavirus pandemic on rural transportation in Iran. This is followed by assessing the impacts of the virus on urban transportation in Tehran (the capital of Iran). The behaviour of more than 700 travellers in terms of trip purpose, travel time, and mode choice is evaluated using a questionnaire. Results indicate that the number of passengers has reduced dramatically in rural transportation systems. In such systems, considerations such as keeping social distancing, disinfection of passengers and their luggage, and unemployment of a group of personnel working in the transportation industry have been more evident. In urban transportation, education trips have dropped the most. This might relate to an increase in online teaching and health concerns. The same pattern can be seen in the passengers who used bicycles, public taxis, and other public transportation systems. Finally, during the pandemic, drivers' speed has increased, which justifies the need for traffic calming for drivers. © 2022 Warsaw University of Technology. All rights reserved.
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This study provides a prompt understanding of actual travel behaviours during and after a real time pandemic building on an earlier published study of intended behaviours. Quantitative online survey data gathered during China's first national multi-day holiday-Golden Week (October 2020)-since the lifting of the country's stringent travel restrictions triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has allowed for actual post-pandemic travel behaviours to be investigated. The survey carried out for this purpose included decisions in favour or against travel, motivations, means of travel, as well as changes in terms of travel duration, travel distance and spending. A taxonomy is developed for actual tourist behaviours within a post-pandemic domestic tourism context to understand factors influencing these behaviours, including perceived risk, anxiety, trust and financial constraints. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)
ABSTRACT
Vaccination can play a decisive role in reducing travel risk and rebuilding travel confidence. Previous studies pointed out that travel desires moderate or influence vaccination intention, while this paper extends their studies to investigate the relationships between vaccine trust (VT), travel confidence after vaccination (TC), travel intention (TI) and travel behaviour (TB). The VT, TC, and TI clusters were insignificant towards travel behaviour, indicating that travel confidence triggers travel intention but did not reflect on behaviour. The binomial logit model disclosed that only travel confidence was statistically significant toward travel intention, whereby tourists who were more desirous of travelling would be 5.3 times greater in the high-TC cluster. This paper suggests that vaccination should not serve as the only solution for the early stage of tourism reboot, as vaccination can boost travel confidence but not the tourists' behaviour.
ABSTRACT
In this paper, we analyse the specific behaviour of passengers in personal transport commuting to work or school during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on a sample of respondents from two countries. We classified the commuters based on a two-step cluster analysis into groups showing the same characteristics. Data were obtained from an online survey, and the total sample size consists of 2000 respondents. We used five input variables, dividing the total sample into five clusters using a two-step cluster analysis. We observed significant differences between gender, status, and car ownership when using public transport, cars, and other alternative means of transportation for commuting to work and school. We also examined differences between individual groups with the same socioeconomic and socio-demographic factors. In total, the respondents were classified into five clusters, and the results indicate that there are differences between gender and status. We found that ownership of a prepaid card for public transport and social status are the most important factors, as they reach a significance level of 100%, unlike compared to other factors with importance ranging from 60 to 80%. Moreover, the results demonstrate that prepaid cards are preferred mainly by female students. Understanding these factors can help in planning transport policy by knowing the habits of users. © 2023 by the authors.
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This work analyses changes in traffic flow and vehicle fleet segmentation from Jul-2020 to Dec-2021 in Bahía Blanca, a medium-sized Argentinian city. We obtained the data by manual counting watching videos provided by the city's security cameras. During the different stages and restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic, fluctuations appeared in the traffic flow. The motorized vehicle flow was gradually increasing during pandemic, reaching in Nov-2021 levels close to those reported in Mar-2020 (pre-pandemic). Moreover, an increase in sustainable micro-mobility (bicycles and e-scooters) was detected, as well as changes in the city's peak hours. This study provides relevant information on how urban mobility is changing. In consequence, new policies that could lead us to a people-centred and more sustainable city could be created. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of International Journal of Environmental Studies is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
Like in many other countries, the Dutch government instructed people to work from home where possible during the COVID-19 pandemic to halt the transmission of the virus. This policy seems to have resulted in a structural increase in working from home and teleconferencing that will outlast the pandemic. However, the longer-term effects on travel behaviour are still unclear. Making use of panel data collected using the Netherlands Mobility Panel, this paper has two main aims. First, it analyses developments in working from home and teleconferencing since COVID-19. Second, it estimates the expected post-pandemic effects on travel behaviour. The results show that compared to before the pandemic, the average number of hours that people work from home has doubled and roughly two-thirds of respondents indicate that they teleconference more often. We estimate that structural, post-pandemic increases in working from home and teleconferencing will result in a negative effect on distances travelled by train (-3% to-9%), by bus, tram, and metro (-1% to-5%) and car (-1 to-5%). The estimated effect on the distance travelled by bicycle (-2% to 0%), and walking (0% to +1%) is smaller or even positive, due to people making more complementary trips for other purposes when working from home. When interpreting these results, we should keep in mind that due to various other factors, such as population growth, total travel demand will still grow in the near future. © 2023, TU Delft. All rights reserved.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has completely disrupted and possibly permanently changed the way humans travel. In Puerto Rico, major travel restrictions to the island have persisted at different levels since March 2020, which heavily influenced residents' travel behaviors. However, it remains unclear about how big the impact is and how inequitable it might be. The goal of this study is to evaluate COVID-19's impacts on Puerto Rican's travel behaviors by analyzing travel flows from Puerto Rico to the contiguous US with a modified gravity model. The roles of socioeconomic factors regarding the Puerto Rican travelers and COVID-19 factors regarding the destination US states have been assessed. COVID-19 was a strong deterring factor of travel at the beginning of the pandemic and also in the winter of 2020, but it did not keep Puerto Ricans from traveling during the summer 2020 when most travel restrictions were lifted. We found that the elderly population of Puerto Rico, despite being more vulnerable to COVID-19, were much more likely to travel during the pandemic. We also found that, during the holiday season in 2020, some socioeconomically disadvantaged populations were more likely to be traveling, a direct contradiction to their travel flows the year prior. These findings shed light on about how disproportionately affected populations behavior changed from pre-pandemic to after the pandemic started. With the continuance of the pandemic, this information is extremely valuable for future planning with respect to emergency management, travel regulation, and social benefit. © 2023 Wuhan University. Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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The disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly shifted how individuals navigate in cities. Governments are concerned that travel behavior will shift toward a car-driven and homeworking future, shifting demand away from public transport use. These concerns place the recovery of public transport in a possible crisis. A resilience perspective may aid the discussion around recovery–particularly one that deviates from pre-pandemic behavior. This paper presents an empirical study of London's public transport demand and introduces a perspective of spatial resilience to the existing body of research on post-pandemic public transport demand. This study defines spatial resilience as the rate of recovery in public transport demand within census boundaries over a period after lockdown restrictions were lifted. The relationship between spatial resilience and urban socioeconomic factors was investigated by a global spatial regression model and a localized perspective through Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. In this case study of London, the analysis focuses on the period after the first COVID-19 lockdown restrictions were lifted (June 2020) and before the new restrictions in mid-September 2020. The analysis shows that outer London generally recovered faster than inner London. Factors of income, car ownership and density of public transport infrastructure were found to have the greatest influence on spatial patterns in resilience. Furthermore, influential relationships vary locally, inviting future research to examine the drivers of this spatial heterogeneity. Thus, this research recommends transport policymakers capture the influences of homeworking, ensure funding for a minimum level of service, and advocate for a polycentric recovery post-pandemic. © 2023 Wuhan University. Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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Purpose: After each of the COVID-19-induced lockdowns, an unprecedented surge in leisure travel was observed, resulting in tourists flocking to places of tourist interest. This phenomenon was termed revenge travel in popular literature. The purpose of this study is to explore the phenomenon of revenge travel in detail through an academic lens. It examines the psychological and emotional motivations for revenge travel while studying the differences in travel behaviour pre- and post-pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The study applies an interpretive phenomenological approach to explore post-pandemic travel behaviour. Data were collected via personal in-depth semi-structured interviews. Thematic analysis of the transcripts was conducted to arrive at discussion themes. Findings: Drawing on the established theories, the findings of the study indicate that lockdown fatigue coupled with mortality salience induced individuals towards leisure travel. This in turn led to mood alleviation and compensation for the deprivation undergone. Practical implications: The study reveals important insights into post-pandemic preferences of travel destinations (off-beat locations near urban clusters), accommodation options (more travellers choosing home stays and stand-alone properties) and vacation itineraries (a gradual shift towards slow tourism with more focus on immersive experiences). Further, there are indications that hotels may develop "workcations” and "staycations” as a new line of offering. Originality/value: The study adds to the small body of knowledge on revenge travel. It adopts a phenomenological approach, thereby capturing the "lived experiences” of the participants and providing an in-depth look into the psychological and emotional motivations of revenge travel that have not been explored previously. The study provides insights into the travellers' psychology post a period of withdrawal and restraint. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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This study aims to identify the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on school trips using a survey of 1120 students and their households in Cairo, Egypt. We found that students' age, distance to school, and school type (public or private) influence the mode used to school, the majority of parents would prefer to wait for one month or more after the lockdown before sending their children to school, and the pandemic has a significant impact on parents' evaluation of the various schooling options. Based on the responses and using different scenarios, we predicted that the original vehicle-kilometers-traveled would increase by 17% to 34%, with most of the expected modal shift occurring from large occupancy vehicles to smaller vehicles. This shift was attributed to;the distance to school, the father's occupation and education level, parents waiting more time to send children to school, and parents expecting reduced class capacity. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.